Debra Roberts, head of the eThekwini Environmental Management Department explains that these massive storms are the result of climate change and that this is just the beginning of crazy weather patterns for the Western South African coast. Even with factual ocean rising statistics developers continue to push for new marina development project! Exclaims local resident, Ratty, who opposes the development at Vetchies beach. Its unbelievable! he adds.

Read Tony Carnies article for more on this issue:

South Africa Sounding Climate Change Warnings

Speaking at a recent seminar, an expert cautioned that developers and city officials ignored weather patterns at their peril. Tony Carnie reports

March 22, 2007 Edition 1

The spectacular storm damage along the coastline this week may serve as a salutary wake-up call to local developers and city officials that sea level and climate change warnings cannot be sniffed at.

Earlier this week, just a day after freak waves pulverised large sections of the KwaZulu-Natal coastline, the serious long-term implications of global climate change were re-emphasised by Debra Roberts, head of the eThekwini Environmental Management Department.

Speaking at a climate change seminar at the Durban Natural Science Museum, Roberts steered away from alarmist predictions about what could be in store for Durban.

Yet she hinted strongly that some new development proposals on the KZN coast could be "insane".

Roberts also summarised the findings of a recently updated version of the research report entitled A Climatic Future for Durban.

The first version was published in 2005 by the eThekwini Municipality and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

Based on current scientific knowledge, the report warned that the sea level in Durban was expected to rise at the rate of about 4.5cm every 10 years (or nearly 45cm by the turn of the century).

However, because of apparent errors in naval tide data charts, this projection had been revised downwards to an average sea level rise of between 20cm and 30cm by the turn of the century in the Durban area.

And, while this projection might seem insignificant, Roberts cautioned that the calculations were based on calm sea conditions only and did not take into account the effect of violent storm events.

She noted, for example, that the rare planetary alignment of the Earth, moon and sun earlier this week had been a one-in-18-year event, while the towering storm waves were seen as a one-in-50-year event.

"Theoretically, the combination of these two rare events made it a one-in-900-year event - yet it happened here in Durban just yesterday!"

Adding to the uncertainty was the possibility that the East Coast of Africa could become vulnerable to more frequent extreme weather events such as cyclones.

"I think there are some insane coastal developments under consideration," she warned, declining to name the projects she was referring to.

While Roberts was clearly reticent to step into the firing line, several yachtsmen in Durban have not hesitated to attack what they believe to be the "sheer folly" of building a new yachting marina and small-craft harbour on the exposed sea-front next to Vetch's Pier.

Their warnings about the likelihood of rough seas and storms pulverising yachts at the controversial Vetch's site were published several weeks ago, and the events of this week will no doubt add fuel to the flames.

Neels Brink, Project Director of the Durban Point Development Company, has not responded so far to the most recent criticism, though it is understood that he has asked marine engineering consultants to respond to the criticism next week.

Roberts emphasised that predicting climate-related sea level rise was extremely tricky because of the paucity of data and the level of scientific comlexity.

But, responding to a question from the floor about the need to consider the dissenting views of some scientists on the issue of climate change, Roberts said there were people in the world who still believed the world was flat.

"Yes, we do engage with dissenters, but they are becoming a smaller and smaller group . . . (and to suggest) that there is no reason to panic is a bit like saying that smoking does not cause lung cancer."

During her presentation, she also displayed several simulations from the eThekwini/CSIR climate change report depicting possible sea level inundation in several parts of Durban in the coming centuries.

Though the timing of such inundations remains speculative, she noted that a 2m-4m rise in sea level in Durban would flood large chunks of the Point area.

Large parts of the city's economic heartland - the south Durban industrial area and Durban Harbour - were also located in low-lying areas which would become increasingly vulnerable to inundation.

In Prospecton, for example, "you might potentially have to snorkel to work under certain scenarios predicted."

Roberts also showed dramatic photographs of the damage to beachfront houses caused by coastal erosion last October in Eastmoor Crescent, La Lucia. She said much of this damage could have been avoided by better planning, or if the owners had not chopped down coastal dune vegetation which helped to protect the stability of the land in front of their property.

The city also needed to think more carefully about where to allow new developments and about where key municipal infrastructure should be located.

She noted that 18 pump stations had been destroyed over the past few days, simply because they were built too close to the sea.

And whereas the public spotlight is presently trained on sea level rise, Roberts warned that there were many other climate-related issues at stake.

For example, the average temperature in Durban was likely to rise by between 2C and 3C by the end of the century. The overall number of days in the year with temperatures above 30C was also expected to rise significantly.

The average quantity of rain was not expected to change markedly in the Durban area, but the distribution and frequency of rain could change significantly.

With hotter temperatures, more evaporation and longer intervals between the rains, the eThekwini/CSIR report predicted that the greater Durban area would lose fresh water supplies equal to the capacity of Midmar Dam every year.

The hotter temperatures would also have serious implications for the spread of disease because malarial mosquitoes and cholera bacteria would expand their range to areas previously unsuited to their survival.

Peter Goodman, head of biodiversity and conservation planning at the Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, also delivered several dire warnings about the decline of ecological richness in KZN because of changing climate patterns. He suggested that the Midlands and Drakensberg regions would be most vulnerable to a predicted temperature increase of 2C by the year 2100.

Several grass, plant and animal species with a low tolerance for temperature change would be lost if they were unable to migrate upwards towards colder temperatures.

Goodman said the rising levels of man-induced carbon dioxide would favour woody plants such as acacias, which would then be able to outcompete grassy species.

"Just the carbon dioxide increases (independent of temperature change) is the death knell for our grasslands. We are already seeing this kind of change happening in front of our eyes. To guard against the complete disappearance of several climate-vulnerable species, Goodman said it was essential to protect a larger area of land from development, and to create natural migration pathways that would allow vulnerable plant and animal species to move upwards to higher altitudes.

Goodman said Ezemvelo had been developing a new conservation master plan to cater for climate change for nearly eight years, "but we have been battling to get political support at provincial level".

He warned that it was "almost too late" to implement such a plan because of the race to develop land throughout the province.