What is the value of a wave?
Surfonomics and Climate Vulnerability in Santa Cruz, CA
Save The Waves Coalition is proud to produce a new report, Climate Vulnerability Of California’s Natural Surfing Capital.
This groundbreaking study is the first of its kind: combining an analysis of Surfonomics, surf break vulnerability to sea level rise, and accessibility barriers to determine the value and natural capital of surfing in Santa Cruz, California.
“We now understand at a granular scale how a local economy is bolstered by the sport of surfing. At Save The Waves, we knew we needed more than Surfonomics. So we studied how that economic value is threatened by climate change through the loss of surf breaks to sea level rise.”
-Trent Hodges, Sr. Manager of World Surfing Reserves and Campaigns; Lead of Project Study
Key takeaways & learnings
Surfonomics Findings
- Surfing has an estimated economic value of at least $194.7 million per year in Santa Cruz, CA (see below for breakdown)
- There are approximately 783,000 surf visits per year in Santa Cruz, CA
- Surf trips by visitors generate an estimated $44.5 million annually in Santa Cruz
- Spending in the broader Santa Cruz surfing economy on equipment and services contributes approximately $150.2 million each year
Sea Level Rise & Climate Change
- Without adaptation measures, all 31 Santa Cruz surf breaks will lose quality and surfable hours and many breaks will be lost completely
- Adaptation measures that remove revetments and utilize nature-based approaches will make surf breaks more resilient to sea level rise
Combined Vulnerability Impact
- Sea level rise in Santa Cruz is projected to cause an estimated loss of $12.8 million in recreational economic value at one foot of sea level rise, with an additional $12.6 million at risk at two feet and a further $9.1 million at three feet
Access and Economic Barriers
- Access and economic barriers as well as psychological safety prevent marginalized communities from fully engaging in surfing in Santa Cruz and participating in the surfing economy
We have a much better understanding now of the surfonomics in Santa Cruz, but, more importantly, we have a blueprint for how to bring this statewide. Surf ecosystems need to be embedded in the policy process. If they don’t have status, if they’re not recognized, we are losing out on the natural capital that we have.
FAQs
What is the title of the report?
The report is called “Climate Vulnerability Of California’s Natural Surfing Capital: Insights on Surfonomics and Surf Break Vulnerability from Santa Cruz for Local and Statewide Consideration”.
When did the study take place?
The study was began in May 2023 and written by the end of August 2025, and publicly published on September 16, 2025.
Who created the report?
It was conducted by Save The Waves Coalition, with Integral Consulting and Black Surf Santa Cruz, and supported by the Ocean Protection Council.
How did you conduct the study?
Our staff and consultants analyzed 31 surf breaks and surveyed hundreds of surfers and community members, and convened workshops with residents, businesses, and advocacy groups.
How did you choose Santa Cruz for your study?
Save The Waves headquarters is based in Santa Cruz. It is also the site of one of 14 World Surfing Reserves from our global WSR program. Through the Santa Cruz WSR, we have longstanding stewardship work to better understand and implement climate resilience for community.
What is Surfonomics?
“Surfonomics” aims to document surfing’s financial contributions to local and regional economies. Through Surfonomics research, we determine the economic value of a wave and surfing to local communities to help decision makers make better choices to protect their coastal resources and waves.
You can learn more here.
What is ‘surfability’?
Our definition is: “The conditions needed for a breaking wave to be considered rideable by a surfer, calculated as percentage of time with surfable conditions in daylight hours.”
What is ‘surf break vulnerability’?
The “Surf Break Vulnerability Assessment” chapter in the report assesses the impact of sea level rise on waves by the change in surfability over time. It is the vulnerability of surf breaks to the affects of climate change.
Why did the report focus on accessibility and economic barriers?
In order to accurately capture an economic landscape, it is also important to understand who may not be captured in that calculation. As we see from the Surf Break Vulnerability Assessment, sea level rise will degrade wave quality and potentially erase surf breaks completely. This has implications for crowding and access for all coast users, but especially marginalized communities that already face significant barriers to access. Furthermore, coastal policy should aim to support decisions and infrastructure that encourages more Californians to visit surf breaks as there is significant economic value that is generated as we have seen above.
Why is surfing a focus point?
At Save The Waves, protecting waves is about so much more than surfing. There’s an entire surf ecosystem. And it’s about more than surfers.
From an environmental perspective, we are focused on places around the world where iconic surfing waves overlap with biodiversity hotspots and habitats that are critically important for marine conservation.
In order to achieve better conservation of our surf ecosystems and surf breaks, we use studies like Surfonomics and this Surf Break Vulnerability report to educate the public and inform decisionmakers about the true value of a wave. This helps us promote and preserve intact and healthy surf ecosystems that benefit both the local environment and local economies.
