New report details the economic value of surfing, what we stand to lose to climate change, and how best to address it
(Santa Cruz, CA – September 16, 2025) A groundbreaking study reveals the economic contribution of Santa Cruz’s iconic surf breaks – and the serious threat of sea level rise to both surfers’ waves and the local economy.
The first-of-its-kind report, Climate Vulnerability Of California’s Natural Surfing Capital, was led by Santa Cruz-based international nonprofit Save The Waves Coalition, in partnership with Integral Consulting and Black Surf Santa Cruz, with support from the California Ocean Protection Council.
The most staggering takeaway: a “Surfonomics” analysis that estimates that surfing has an economic value of at least $194.7 million per year in Santa Cruz, CA with over 783,000 surf visits annually.
Surf trips by visitors generate an estimated $44.5 million annually in Santa Cruz. Spending in the broader Santa Cruz surfing economy on equipment and services contributes approximately $150.2 million each year. Both statistics highlight the enormous value surfing brings to the region.
“We now understand at a granular scale how a local economy is bolstered by the sport of surfing. At Save The Waves, we knew we needed more than Surfonomics. So we studied how that economic value is threatened by climate change through the loss of surf breaks to sea level rise,” said Trent Hodges, lead of the study for Save The Waves Coalition.
We now understand at a granular scale how a local economy is bolstered by the sport of surfing. At Save The Waves, we knew we needed more than Surfonomics. So we studied how that economic value is threatened by climate change through the loss of surf breaks to sea level rise.
Beginning in May 2023, the project studied 31 local surf breaks, surveyed hundreds of surfers and community members, and convened workshops with residents, businesses, and advocacy groups.
The report identifies the degree to which Santa Cruz surf breaks will be impacted by rising seas – referred to as ‘surf break vulnerability’. As sea levels rise, surfability for surf breaks is diminished over time. ‘Surfability’ is defined as ‘conditions needed for a breaking wave to be considered rideable by a surfer, calculated as a percentage of time with surfable conditions in daylight hours.’
“We worked with local surf condition experts – surfers with decades of first-hand experience in Santa Cruz breaks – ensuring the project reflected deep, lived knowledge,” said Shaun Burns, Santa Cruz World Surfing Reserve Coordinator for Save The Waves. “Their insights on tides and conditions grounded the analysis of each break in authenticity and allowed us to map sea level rise, showing how the surfablity for these waves may change over time.”
The data and analysis revealed that all 31 surf breaks evaluated will see a decrease in surfable conditions at 1 foot of sea level rise. Even more alarming, at 3 feet of sea level rise more than half of all the surf breaks will be significantly diminished or lost completely, assuming no adaptation measures are taken.
The good news is there are ways to lessen the impact and each surf break may require a specific approach. The report evaluates how various adaptation strategies can help preserve surfability and protect economic value, highlighting the benefits of sand management, managed retreat and other options that reduce the impacts of hard infrastructure.
Adaptation approaches that rely less on hard armoring and instead implement more nature-based solutions are more likely to preserve surfability in the long term. Maintaining a more natural, dissipative coastline can help reduce the negative impacts on overall surf quality and better preserve surf breaks.
In addition to economic and environmental modeling, the project prioritized community input to understand how sea level rise affects behavior, decision-making, and access, particularly for marginalized groups.
In collaboration with Black Surf Santa Cruz, the study explored the barriers underrepresented communities face in accessing surf breaks, as well as the social dynamics that may discourage them from participating, contributing critical context to equitable adaptation planning.
“To me the value of a wave is invaluable, but it really got me thinking about the socioeconomic factors and decades of public policy that have contributed to a loss of economic value and wellbeing for people, specifically Black and BIPOC communities. What is the lost economic and social value due to access issues for marginalized communities for that wave? If we’re planning for the future of our coastlines, we must ensure that future is equitable,” says Bella Bonner, Executive Director of Black Surf Santa Cruz. “This means not only protecting waves but removing systemic barriers to access so that all communities can share in the benefits of surfing and waveriding and contribute to conversations around its evolution.”
We have a much better understanding now of the surfonomics in Santa Cruz, but, more importantly, we have a blueprint for how to bring this statewide. Surf ecosystems need to be embedded in the policy process. If they don’t have status, if they’re not recognized, we are losing out on the natural capital that we have.
As a study, “Climate Vulnerability of California’s Natural Surfing Capital” is robust and is divided by its research and results into four parts: 1) Surfonomics and the economic value of surfing 2) Surf Break Vulnerability Assessment, i.e., the sensitivity loss of waves to sea level rise 3) an evaluation of the social dynamics of surfing 4) policy and adaptation recommendations.
“Surfing is more than a sport in Santa Cruz, it’s a cultural, economic, and environmental cornerstone,” said Nik Strong-Cvetich, CEO of Save The Waves Coalition. “This study confirms what many in the community have felt: climate change is not a future issue. It’s impacting our coastlines now and it’s happening for more surf cities in California than just Santa Cruz.”
The final report offers specific policy recommendations and planning frameworks to help incorporate surf break protection into local and state-level climate adaptation strategies. Save The Waves Coalition urges immediate action by state agencies to implement a statewide policy to recognize these places.
“We have a much better understanding now of the surfonomics in Santa Cruz, but, more importantly, we have a blueprint for how to bring this statewide. Surf ecosystems need to be embedded in the policy process. If they don’t have status, if they’re not recognized, we are losing out on the natural capital that we have.”
Read the full report Climate Vulnerability Of California’s Natural Surfing Capital here.
If you wish to contact Save The Waves Coalition regarding the report or make inquires on behalf of surf break protection in your local community, contact info@savethewaves.org
